At Home with Team Gabriel

Lately, it feels like every headline about the housing market comes with a side of doubt. Are prices going up or down? Are we headed for a crash? Will rates ever come down? And all the media noise may leave you wondering: does it really make sense to buy a home right now?

But here’s one thing that doesn’t get enough airtime. Real estate has always been about the long game. And when you look at the big picture, not just the latest clickbait headlines, it’s easy to see why so many people say it’s still the best investment you can make – even now.

According to the just-released annual report from Gallup, real estate has been voted the best long-term investment for the 12th year in a row. That’s over a decade of beating out stocks, gold, and bonds as America’s top pick.

And this isn’t new. Real estate usually claims the #1 title. But here’s what’s really interesting. This year’s results came in just after a rocky April for the stock and bond markets. It shows that, even as other investments had wild swings, real estate has held its ground. That’s likely because it gains value in a steadier, more predictable way. As Gallup explains:

"Amid volatility in the stock and bond markets in April, Americans' preference for stocks as the best long-term investment has declined. Gold has gained in appeal, while real estate remains the top choice for the 12th consecutive year."

That says a lot. Even though things may feel a bit uncertain in today’s economy, real estate can still be a powerful investment.

Yes, home values are rising at a more moderate pace right now. And sure, in some markets, prices may be flat in the year ahead or even dip a little – but that’s just the short-term view. Don’t let that cloud the bigger picture.

Real estate has a long track record of gaining value over time. That’s the kind of growth you can count on, especially if you plan to live in that home for a long time.

That’s part of why Americans continue to buy-in to homeownership – even when the headlines may sound a little uncertain. As Sam Williamson, Senior Economist at First American, says:

“A home is more than just a place to live—it’s often a family’s most valuable financial asset and a cornerstone to building long-term wealth.”

In Conclusion

Real estate isn’t about overnight wins. It’s about long-term gains. So, don’t let the uncertainty in a shifting market make you think it’s a bad time to buy.

If you’re feeling unsure, just remember: Americans have consistently said real estate is the best long-term investment you can make. And if you want more information about why so many people think homeownership is worth it, let’s chat.

You’ve probably asked yourself lately: Is it even worth trying to buy a home right now?

With high home prices and stubborn mortgage rates, renting can seem like the safer choice right now. Or maybe your only choice. That’s a very real feeling. And perhaps buying today isn’t your best move; it’s not for everyone right away. You should only buy a home when you’re ready and able to do it, and if the timing is right for you.

But here’s the thing you need to know about renting.

While it may feel like a safer bet today – and in some areas might even be less expensive month-to-month than owning – it can really cost you more over time.

In fact, a recent Bank of America survey found that 70% of aspiring homeowners worry about what long-term renting means for their future. And they’re not wrong.

Owning a home may seem way out of reach, but if you make a plan now and steadily work toward it, homeownership comes with serious long-term financial benefits.

Homeownership Builds Wealth Over Time

Buying a home isn’t just about having a place to live – it’s a step toward building your future wealth.

Why? Home prices typically rise over time, which means the longer you wait, the more expensive it is to buy. And even in some markets where home prices are softening today, the overall long-term trend speaks for itself (see graph below):

And as home values rise, so does your equity when you’re a homeowner. That’s the difference between what your home is worth and what you owe. So, with every mortgage payment, that equity grows. Over time, that becomes part of your net worth.

Today, the average homeowner’s net worth is nearly 40X greater than that of a renter. That’s a shocking difference, and the dollars in the visual below don’t lie (see graph below):

And it’s one of the big reasons why Forbes says:

“While renting might seem like [the] less stressful option . . . owning a home is still a cornerstone of the American dream and a proven strategy for building long-term wealth.”

The Biggest Downside of Renting

So, short-term, why does renting feel like a simpler choice? Lower monthly payments, less responsibility, no strings attached. But long-term? It can sting.

For decades, while home prices have been rising, rent has gone up too. And while rent has held rather steady more recently, history shows the overall trend is up and to the right. That makes saving for a home more complicated than ever (see graph below):

That kind of financial uncertainty has a real impact. In the same Bank of America survey, 72% of potential buyers said they worry rising rent could affect their current and long-term finances.

Because rent doesn’t build wealth. It doesn’t come back to you later. It pays your landlord’s mortgage – not yours.

So, whether you rent or own, you’re paying a mortgage. The question is: whose mortgage do you want to pay?

Renting vs. Buying: What Really Matters

Think of it this way. Renting means your money is gone once you pay it. Owning means your payment builds equity – like a savings account you can live in. Sure, buying comes with responsibility. But it also comes with the kind of reward that grows over time. And that’s why you need a solid plan to get there.

As Joel Berner, Senior Economist at Realtor.com, explains:

“Households working on their budget will find it much easier to continue to rent than to go through the expenses of homeownership. However, they need to consider the equity and generational wealth they can build up by owning a home that they can’t by renting it. In the long run, buying a home may be a better investment even if the short-run costs seem prohibitive.”

In Conclusion

Renting may feel more do-able today. But over time, it could cost you more – without helping you build anything for your future.

If homeownership feels out of reach today, you’re not alone. And the first step toward getting out of the rental trap is to set a plan. Let’s connect, set your specific goals, and explore your options – so you’re ready when the time is right.

A few years ago, homes were flying off the shelves and getting multiple offers well over their asking price. It felt like you could name your price and still have buyers lined up at the door.

But today’s housing market is different. Buyers are getting more selective now that inventory has grown. Homes are sitting a little longer. And more sellers are having to cut their prices.

So, how do you still come out on top? It all starts with one thing, pricing your house right from the start. Today, that matters more than ever – and it can make or break your sale.

There’s a Real Price Disconnect Between Buyers and Sellers

A recent survey from Realtor.com shows 81% of home sellers believe they’ll get their asking price or more. But the actual sales data shows there’s a growing gap between what sellers expect and what buyers are actually willing to pay.

In fact, an annual report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows 44% of recently sold homes went for less than the asking price. And 1 in 3 sellers had to cut their price at least once before the home sold. It’s a sign that expectations may be a little out of step with today’s reality.

Check out the graph below. It uses data from Redfin to show that asking prices (blue line) are higher than actual sales prices (green line) by a wider and wider margin:

This tells you something important: not all buyers are willing to pay what many sellers are asking. That doesn’t mean you can’t sell for a great price – but it does mean you need to start with a price that reflects what people are willing to pay in today’s market.

What Happens When You Overprice Your House?

Pricing your house high initially may seem like a smart move, so you have more room to negotiate. But the reality is, an overpriced home can sit on the market and turn buyers away. 

Buyers are smart. And when they see a house that’s been sitting for a while, they start to wonder what’s wrong with it. That can lead to fewer showings, less interest, and eventually, a price cut to re-ignite attention. As Realtor.com explains: 

“By getting the right price early on, you can increase the odds buyers will be interested in the home. In turn, this decreases the chances the home will sit on the market for a lengthier timeline, also reducing the odds you’ll need to lower the listing price.”

The longer a house sits, the harder it can be to sell.

You Still Have a Great Opportunity – If You Price Your House Right 

To avoid making this mistake, it’s important to lean on an agent who knows what’s happening locally when you set your asking price. 

Your agent will look at recent local sales, buyer trends, and inventory levels to find that pricing sweet spot for your neighborhood – because it’s going to be different based on where you live.

And here’s something else to keep in mind, home prices have climbed more than 57% over the past five years. So, even if you price a bit below the number you had your sights set on, you’ll likely still be in a great position profit-wise.

With a local real estate agent’s help, you’ll attract more attention, avoid seeing your house sit on the market too long, and maximize your chances of getting a strong offer.

In today’s market, the right price works. As Mike Simonsen, Founder of Altos Research, explains:

“. . . the best properties, well priced are selling quickly in most of the country.”

In Conclusion

The market has changed, but your opportunity to sell hasn’t. You just need the right pricing plan. Let’s walk through what’s happening with prices in our area and determine what price would help your house sell quickly and for top dollar.

If you’ve been house hunting lately, you’ve probably felt the sting of today’s mortgage rates. And it’s because of those rates and rising home prices that many homebuyers are starting to explore other types of loans to make the numbers work. And one option that’s gaining popularity? Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs).

If you remember the crash in 2008, this may bring up some concerns. But don’t worry. Today’s ARMs aren’t the same. Here’s why.

Back then, some buyers were given loans they couldn’t afford after the rates adjusted. But now, lenders are more cautious, and they evaluate whether you could still afford the loan if your rate increases. So, don’t assume the return of ARMs means another crash. Right now, it just shows some buyers are looking for creative solutions when affordability is tough. 

You can see the recent trend in this data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). More people are opting for ARMs right now (see graph below):

And while ARMs aren’t right for everyone, in certain situations they do have their benefits.

How an Adjustable-Rate Mortgage Works

Here’s how Business Insider explains the main difference between a fixed-rate mortgage and an adjustable-rate mortgage:

“With a fixed-rate mortgage, your interest rate remains the same for the entire time you have the loan. This keeps your monthly payment the same for years . . . adjustable-rate mortgages work differently. You'll start off with the same rate for a few years, but after that, your rate can change periodically. This means that if average rates have gone up, your mortgage payment will increase. If they've gone down, your payment will decrease.”

Of course, things like taxes or homeowner’s insurance can still have an impact on a fixed-rate loan, but the baseline of your mortgage payment doesn’t change much. Adjustable-rate mortgages don't work the same way.

Pros and Cons of an ARM

Here’s a little more information on why some buyers are giving ARMs another look. They offer some pretty appealing upsides, like a lower initial rate. As Business Insider explains:

"Because ARM rates are typically lower than fixed mortgage rates, they can help buyers find affordability when rates are high. With a lower ARM rate, you can get a smaller monthly payment or afford more house than you could with a fixed-rate loan."

On the flip side, just remember, if you have an ARM, your rate will change over time. As Barron’s explains there’s the potential for higher costs later:

"Adjustable-rate loans offer a lower initial rate, but recalculate after a period. That is a plus for borrowers if rates come down in the future, or if a borrower sells before the fixed period ends, but can lead to higher costs if they hold on to their home and rates go up."

So, while the upfront savings can be helpful now, you'll want to think through what could happen if you're still in that home when your initial rate ends. Because while projections show rates are expected to ease a bit over the next year or two, no forecast is guaranteed. 

That’s why it’s essential to talk with your lender and financial advisor about all your options and whether an ARM aligns with your financial goals and your comfort with risk.

In Conclusion

For the right buyer, ARMs can offer some big advantages. But they’re not one-size-fits-all. The key is understanding how they work, weighing the pros and cons, and thinking through if they’d be something that would work for you financially. And that’s why you need to talk to a trusted lender and financial advisor before you make any decisions.

Maybe you’ve heard the number of homes for sale has reached a recent high. And it might make you question if this is the start of another housing market crash.

But the reality is, the data proves that’s just not the case. In most areas, more inventory isn’t bad news. It’s actually a sign of the market returning to a more stable, healthy place.

What’s Going on With Inventory?

Based on the latest data from Realtor.com, inventory just hit its highest point since 2020, shown with the white line in the graph below.

But what you need to realize is, at the same time, inventory levels still haven’t returned to pre-pandemic norms (shown in gray):

That means there are more homes for sale now than there have been in quite some time.

And while it’s true inventory is up significantly compared to where it was over the last few years, the number of homes on the market is still well below typical levels. And that’s important context.

Why This Isn’t the Problem A Lot of People Think It Is

Some people hear inventory’s rising and immediately think about 2008. Because back then, inventory spiked just before the market crashed. But today’s situation is very different.

Here’s the key reason why. We don’t have a surplus of homes; we have a deficit to climb out of. What we’re dealing with is a long-term housing shortage – and it’s a big one.

The red bars in the graph below show all the years where housing starts (new builds) didn’t keep up with household formation, going all the way back to 2012. The deeper the bars in the graph, the more the housing deficit grew (see graph below):

And one of the reasons this housing shortage kept growing is because new home construction just didn’t keep up with the number of people who need to buy homes. In fact, the U.S. is actually short millions of homes at this point, and it will take years to overcome that gap. Realtor.com says:

“At a 2024 rate of construction relative to household formations and pent-up demand, it would take 7.5 years to close the housing gap.”

That means, in most areas, there isn’t a risk of having too many houses on the market right now. It’s quite the opposite – a vast majority of markets actually need more homes.

Which is why, even though inventory is rising, it’s not a problem on a national scale. It’s just helping to fill a gap that’s been growing for years.

In Conclusion

Don’t let the headlines scare you. Rising inventory isn’t a sign of a crash. It’s a step toward a more normal, stable housing market.

If you’re a homeowner, chances are you’ve built up a lot of wealth – just by living in your house and watching its value grow over time. And that equity? It’s something that could help change your child’s life.

Since affordability is still a challenge, a lot of first-time buyers are struggling to buy a home in today’s market. Even if they have a stable job and a solid plan, buying can still feel out of reach. But that’s where your equity could make all the difference.

To give you an idea, the average homeowner with a mortgage has $311,000 worth of equity, according to Cotality (formerly CoreLogic). That’s significant. And some parents are using a portion of their equity to help their children become homeowners, too.

According to Bank of America, 49% of buyers between 18 and 26 got money from their parents to use toward their down payment (see chart below): 

Even though the data doesn’t specify how many parents used their equity, the wealth they’ve built through homeownership may have helped make it possible – especially given how much equity the average homeowner has today.

While what’s right for each person’s specific situation will vary on a case-by-case basis, that’s a powerful legacy to pass on. It helps those younger people buy a home, build equity of their own, and begin the next chapter of their life with a little less financial stress and a lot more stability. And for those parents? It’s a way to turn what they've built into something deeply meaningful.

This isn’t just about money. For many homeowners, it’s about being the reason their child gets to say, “we got the house.” And giving them the kind of head start they might’ve only dreamed of at their age. And here’s the part that really sticks. Compare the Market says: 

“Of those who did receive monetary aid from parents and grandparents to buy a house, 45% of Americans said they would not have been able to purchase a house without financial support from parents and grandparents"

In Conclusion

Your equity could be the thing that makes homeownership possible for your children when they might not be able to do it on their own. So, here’s the question.

If helping your kids buy a home was more feasible than you thought, would you want to explore that option?

If you want to learn more or find out the best way to make it happen, talk to your lender and a financial advisor you trust.

If you have a 3% mortgage rate, you’re probably pretty hesitant to let that go. And even if you’ve toyed with the idea of moving, this nagging thought may be holding you back: “why would I give that up?”

But when you ask that question, you may be putting your needs on the back burner without realizing it. Most people don’t move because of their mortgage rate. They move because they want or need to. So, let’s flip the script and ask this instead: 

What are the chances you’ll still be in your current house 5 years from now?

Think about your life for a moment. Picture what the next few years will hold. Are you planning on growing your family? Do you have adult children about to move out? Is retirement on the horizon? Are you already bursting at the seams?

If nothing’s going to change, and you love where you are, staying put might make perfect sense. But if there’s even a slight chance a move is coming, even if it’s not immediate, it’s worth thinking about your timeline.

Because even a year or two can make a big difference in what your next home might cost you.

What the Experts Say About Home Prices over the Next 5 Years

Each quarter, Fannie Mae asks more than 100 housing market experts to weigh in on where they project home prices are headed. And the consensus is clear. Home prices are expected to rise through at least 2029 (see graph below):

While those projections aren’t calling for big increases each year, it's still an increase. And sure, some markets may see flatter prices or slower growth, or even slight dips in the short term. But look further out. In the long run, prices almost always rise. And over the next 5 years, the anticipated increase – however slight – will add up fast.

Here’s an example. Let's say you'll be looking to buy a roughly $400,000 house when you move. If you wait and move 5 years from now, based on these expert projections, it could cost nearly $80,000 more than it would now (see graph below):

That means the longer you wait, the more your future home will cost you. 

If you know a move is likely in your future, it may make sense to really think about your timeline. You certainly don't have to move now. But financially, it may still be worth having a conversation about your options before prices inch higher. Because while rates are expected to come down, it’s not by much. And if you’re holding out in hopes we’ll see the return of 3% rates, experts agree it’s just not in the cards (see graph below): 

So, the question really isn’t: “why would I move?” It’s: “when should I?” – because when you see the real numbers, waiting may not be the savings strategy you thought it was. And that’s the best conversation you can have with your trusted agent right now.

In Conclusion

Keeping that low mortgage rate is smart – until it starts holding you back.

If a move is likely on the horizon for you, even if it’s a few years down the line, it’s worth thinking through the numbers now, so you can plan ahead.

What other price point do you want to see these numbers for? Let’s have that conversation, so I can show you how the math adds up. That way, you can make an informed decision about your timeline.